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Background
There
is nearly total agreement internationally that global climate change
is a serious problem that urgently requires co-ordinated action
beyond the measures already agreed upon. In February, April and
May 2007, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the three Working Group
reports that form the major part of its Fourth Assessment Report
on climate change. The reports predict a rise in global temperature
ranging between 1.8 and 4.0 degree Celsius in the 21st century (compared
with 0.7 in the previous century), with severe economic, social
and environmental repercussions. The IPCC reports also state with
a 90 percent probability that most of the observed increase in global
average temperatures since the middle of the last century can be
attributed to human influence.
In late October 2006, the widely recognised “Stern
Review” on the Economics of Climate Change stated that
stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 500-550 parts per million
(ppm) carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2 eq.) would cost one percent
of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050, while
inaction could trigger powerful storms, floods or heat waves that
could cost the global economy at least five percent of GDP each
year and up to 20 percent in the worst-case scenario. The report
concludes that “the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
should be limited to somewhere within the range 450 – 550
ppm” CO2 eq.
For
many years it has been the EU’s stated policy goal to stabilise
global long-term average temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius.
According to current estimates, this goal requires keeping greenhouse
gas levels in the atmosphere well below 550 ppm CO2 eq., and a stabilisation
at 450 ppm would at least offer a 50 percent chance to keep with
the 2 degrees target.
While
the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol was a first step to establish
binding international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
it is clear that the stabilisation objectives cited above require
far deeper emission cuts than those agreed upon for the Protocol’s
first commitment period, which ends in 2012. This will also require
broader participation by countries for mitigation efforts. At the
Eleventh Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), held in Montreal
in 2005, which also served as the first meeting of the Parties (MOP)
to the Kyoto Protocol, Parties agreed on a multi-track process to
shape future action beyond 2012. Discussions were continued in Nairobi
in November 2006 (COP 12, COP/MOP 2) and are expected to enter a
decisive stage at the next meeting in Nusa Dua, Bali (December 2007,
COP 13, COP/MOP 3).
In the context
of these negotiations, the March 2007 European
Council has adopted the EU target of a 30 per cent reduction
of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2020, provided
“other developed countries commit themselves to comparable
emission reductions and economically more advanced developing countries
to contributing adequately according to their responsibilities and
respective capabilities”. Should other countries fail to commit,
the EU is dedicated to a unilateral target to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions by at least 20 percent during the same period. The
contributions of individual Member States to the EU’s overall
emission reduction will be based on a new burden-sharing arrangement,
which will take into account „national circumstances and the
relevant base years for the first commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol”.
With
respect to both international negotiations and the discussions within
the EU, considerable differences remain among Member States in their
capacities for effective participation. While EU climate change
policy has been a subject of common debate and action for the EU-15
since the early 1990s, new EU Member States have had much less time
enter into this debate. Many countries lack the human resources
and the technical and administrative capacity to follow and address
every detail of the process, even though the ultimate nature of
the post-2012 regime may have far reaching economic consequences
for them. In order to exert adequate influence on decision-making
at the international and EU levels and make informed contributions,
a higher level of capacity and public awareness in the new Member
States, as well as Candidate Countries, is needed.
Against
this backdrop, Ecologic, together with its partner institutes and
a network of experts from “old” and “new”
EU Member States, is organising a series of events aimed at fostering
discussion on future climate change policies among political decision
makers, business, scientists and civil society in the new Member
States and Candidate Countries. The organisation of the events was
commissioned by the European
Commission.
Further
links
European
Commission’s post-2012 pages
Presidency
Conclusions of the March 2007 European Council
Communication
from the European Commission “Limiting
global climate change to 2 degrees Celsius – The way ahead
for 2020 and beyond”, COM(2007) 2 final
Third
session of the Ad-hoc
Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the
Kyoto Protocol (AWG), Bonn, 14-18 May 2007: Information and
views on the mitigation potential at the disposal of Annex I Parties
– Submissions
from Parties and addendum
Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(Summaries for policy makers):
Contribution from Working Group I "The
Physical Science Basis"
Contribution from Working Group II "Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability"
Contribution from Working Group III "Mitigation
of Climate Change"
For further
information, see also Euractiv
pages on EU climate change policies
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